Society of Satellite Professionals International - Rio de Janeiro

In 1978, two NASA scientists predicted an orbital collapse. In 2026, a clock began counting down how much time we have left: we transitioned from a “spacious” orbit to a “congested” one in less than a decade [1]. More than 80% of new satellite launches go to LEO (Low Earth Orbit, from 300 to 2,000 km). Most are commercial satellites. The speed of regulatory approval cannot keep up with technical velocity. Ironically, this exponential growth is occurring precisely in the altitudes where atmospheric drag is weakest to mitigate the problem [1].

This exponential growth of new satellites around Earth (active satellite growth: ~1,000 in 2019 → ~10,000 in 2025 → projected 100,000+ in the next decade) increases the probability of collisions, as predicted by Kessler and Cour-Palais in their seminal 1978 paper [1].

A single collision at 10 km/s generates hundreds of trackable fragments and thousands of untrackable ones, each representing a new “bullet” capable of triggering the next collision. Kessler and Cour-Palais, using data from only 3,866 satellites (from 1976), correctly predicted the first collision for the 1989–1997 window (it occurred in 2009—a delay of only 12 years—with the collision between the active Iridium 33 satellite and the inactive Russian Cosmos 2251 satellite) [1]. The prophecy has been fulfilled.

IT WAS FORESEEABLE AND IT WAS FORESEEN!

The presentation slides can be obtained by clicking here (attached PDF file)